What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It shifts rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide — affecting crop regions, commodity prices, and shipping routes months later.
How we measure it
The dashboard uses NOAA's official Pacific temperature index (RONI) to classify conditions. Values above +0.5°C for several months typically mean El Niño; below −0.5°C suggest La Niña. The legacy ONI index is documented here for researchers comparing long historical records.
Phase classification
El Niño is declared when the Pacific index meets or exceeds +0.5°C for five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons. La Niña uses the −0.5°C threshold. Values between these thresholds are classified as neutral.
Commodity exposure
Commodity panels use FRED IMF primary commodity price series. Exposure tiers reflect historical yield sensitivity — cocoa and robusta coffee in West Africa and Southeast Asia, palm oil in Indonesia/Malaysia, and wheat in Australia among the highest-conviction exposures during El Niño.
Data sources
- NOAA — Pacific index, Niño region temperatures, official status
- FRED / IMF — Global commodity prices
- Curated RSS — NOAA, WMO, FEWS NET, Reuters, BBC, Guardian, USDA
FAQ
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that can shift global weather patterns — often bringing drought to some crop regions and heavy rain to others.
Will El Niño affect food prices?
It can. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, palm oil, and wheat have historically moved when El Niño disrupts major growing regions. Prices often react before headlines catch up.
How often does El Niño happen?
El Niño and La Niña typically occur every two to seven years and can last several months to more than a year.
Where does the data come from?
Climate status from NOAA, commodity prices from FRED/IMF, and news from curated public feeds. We link to original sources throughout the dashboard.
Disclaimer
This dashboard is for informational purposes only. It is not investment, trading, or operational advice. Always consult official NOAA advisories for operational decisions.
Built by Resilient — geospatial AI for climate resilience.